Canadians are drifting back to the United States, but the trade dispute between the two neighbours is still visible at the border. Statistics Canada data for September show return trips by Canadian residents from the US up 6.8% on a year earlier, the sixth consecutive monthly increase, Skift reported on 13 October.
The rebound is measured against a very weak 2025. By car, trips rose 5.6% year on year but were 31.1% below September 2024. Air trips rose 11.6% but remained 18.7% under their 2024 level. In August, Statistics Canada attributed much of the recovery to a “base-year effect” from last year’s slump.
Sentiment lags the numbers
Attitudes look harder to shift than the statistics. A Leger survey of 1,538 Canadian adults cited by Skift found 60% felt less open to travelling to the US than at any time in the past year, and 43% said a resolution of Canada–US trade tensions would not make them more likely to go. A month earlier, Skift reported that 42% of Canadians surveyed had not even considered a US leisure trip in the past year.
Border regions feel it most
Destinations close to the border remain well short of normal. Crossings into northern New England were up 6% on 2025 but down 23% on 2024, while southbound vehicles into Whatcom County, Washington, were 27% below 2024. Hawaii has held up better, with Canadian arrivals only 4% below 2024. Travel sellers report firmer demand: Flight Centre Canada said US leisure air bookings rose 5.7%, and FlightHub saw US search demand up 15% despite fares rising 17%.
The weakness is not confined to Canada. Separate US government data showed overseas arrivals down 4.3% in September and 5.7% so far this year, led by declines from Western Europe.
Trade disputes end with signatures; the travel chill they caused may take far longer to thaw.
What to watch
- Whether gains continue once comparisons are against already-recovering months in 2025.
- Any Canada–US trade settlement and whether it shifts sentiment despite the Leger findings.
- Winter “snowbird” bookings to Florida and Arizona.
